When Bottom?!

When and equally important where is the bitcoin bottom? Well, to answer these questions we can look historically at bitcoin halving cycles. They typically go like this: bitcoin mining rewards halve roughly every 4 years. When this happens mining rewards are cut in half and this typically precipitates a crypto bull run. The bull run lasts for around 1.5 years, followed by a brutal 1 year bear market (aka crypto winter), and 1.5 years of side-ways consolidation. So assuming the cycle top happened in November 2021, we can expect the bear market to extend through November 2022 (give or take a few months). However, this is not a hard and fast rule and the market sentiment should be re-evaluated as the time nears.

So if the bottom is not in yet where do we go from here? Well, the average crypto bear market can take BTC down 85%. From an all time high of just over $67,000 that would equate to a bottom around the $10,000 area. Of course this too is not an exact science but perhaps can provide an estimate for good entry points to start dollar costs averaging in.

What do you think? How low will the price of bitcoin go? Let me know in the comments.